| Rural News |
The Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI) is predicting a fall in export revenues for farmers over the next year.
It has released its Situation and Outlook Report for 2012, where it says falling product prices in overseas markets will pull export revenue down.
This is despite a relatively strong export year for the dairy, meat, and wool industries.
New Zealand’s dairy export revenues are expected to hit $13.9 billion for the year ending June 2012, a 5.6 per cent increase, while meat and wool exports are predicted to hit $7.2 billion, a 5.8 per cent increase.
Forestry exports are predicted to reach $4.5 billion, owing to strong demand for Kiwi logs in China, in contrast to weak demand for sawn timber.
But the horticultural industry is doing it tough, recording marginal rises for the year, feeling the brunt of low export prices.
Volumes of gold kiwifruit are down due to the unusually wet summer and the onset of the bacterial disease PSA.
MPI deputy director-general Paul Stocks says despite the dreary outlook, prices remain favourable.
“Production this past season has generally been good, even great for some, due to favourable climatic conditions,” Stocks says.
“Primary industries are continuing to sell more into Asia. With recessionary pressure in Europe, the trend towards Asia has turned into a stampede.”
Dairy prices are predicted to drop over the next 12 months thanks to weaker international demand and a boost in production in both Europe and the United States.
Price-conscious consumers in Europe desiring cheaper cuts of meat have led to a fall in demand for New Zealand lamb after a record high of $137 per lamb in November 2011, with further shortfalls expected.
Agricultural debt has remained static for the past year and is predicted to stay the same for the next year, thanks to falling land prices.